Diametric projection distribution of an araucaria forest explored selectively in Southern Brazil

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the projections of frequencies by diameter class in a Araucaria Forest after selective logging, and tested methods of Transition Matrix and Ratio Movement, applied in two amplitudes of diameter classes (5 and 10 cm). The data used in this study are from two permanent plots of 50x100 m that passed light intensity selective cutting (20-30% reduction in basal area) in 2002 and were monitored in 2006, 2010 and 2014 (four, eight and twelve years after the management interventions, respectively). The efficiency of frequency projections by diameter class was verified by comparing the projected and observed values, adopting the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 95% probability. The projection methods were efficient to describe the future forest structure after the selective cuts for both tested diameter classes amplitudes, and the method of the Ratio Movement with diameter range of 10 cm showed greater accuracy, allowing project the future behavior of the diametric structure of the forest after silvicultural interventions.